The US president has an opportunity to make a difference or be
indifferent, says
Nabil Fahmi *
One writes at his own peril in projecting the political future. To
attempt that for an American politician is particularly precarious
because their political futures are made, lost and remade. But then,
that is what makes America's political process so interesting.
President Barack Obama is a man of audacious ambitions and astute
political instincts as was evident in his run for the presidency in the
midst of a volatile torn American electorate as a result of a bitter
Democratic and Republican parties trench war during the Gore/Bush 2000
election and the two-war campaign of the George W Bush administration.
Fainthearted politicians would have waited for the tide to ebb but Obama
correctly calculated that America's desire for change would best serve a
truly different candidate for president.
Obama is not only different by the colour of his skin; he is of a
different generation, untarnished by the Vietnam trauma and unencumbered
by Cold War confines or rhetoric. Rather than simply paint his
inauguration speech with patriotic colours he called upon Americans to
"pick ourselves up, dust ourselves off, and begin again the work of
rebuilding America". And, internationally he focussed on "mutual
interest with and respect of the Muslim world", and diplomacy and
dialogue in resolving global affairs, starkly different from his
predecessor. He then jump-started his first term, simultaneously taking
on a plethora of complex historically intractable issues such as
complete nuclear disarmament, healthcare, withdrawing US troops from
Iraq, ending the war in Afghanistan, nuclear proliferation concerns in
Iran and North Korea, and the Arab-Israeli conflict, all while
responding to the challenges posed by the global financial crisis and
the continuing threat posed by terrorism.
Some political pundits consider Obama amateurish and naïve.
Admittedly he has set himself up for failure and criticism because it is
virtually impossible for him to succeed on all these fronts. His
application of the issues so far has been schizophrenic, with great
speeches in Prague and Cairo, followed by disappointing diplomacy, with
the SALT Treaty not extended on schedule, and the administration backing
down in the face of Israeli obstinacy against a full settlement freeze,
followed by the United States typically asking the Palestinian side to
take the high road and be patient.
The Nobel Peace prize ceremony speech in Oslo was pure Obama,
disarming sceptics by recognising their concerns, rhetorically lofty
while personally humble, refreshingly rational, coherent and clear as to
the problems and the goals. Yet he was vague on how to achieve those
goals. Regrettably, he may be maturing into a real politician!
It is too early to determine which issue or issues will ultimately
define Obama's legacy if he is to serve two terms in office. However,
given the number of volatile and tenuous issues in the Middle East,
ironically, like George W Bush this region will probably bear heavily in
the verdict on his legacy. For the verdict to be commensurate with his
pronounced ambitions, Obama will have to rise to the challenges he has
acknowledged and show that the strength of his convictions is as steady
as the resounding elegance of his rhetoric.
The Egyptian-American relationship has changed dramatically since
Obama came to office; it is much more positive and constructive, both in
tone and substance. However, some human rights activists are pushing
back, criticising Obama vigorously on human rights. These criticisms
will increase when Egypt's election cycle starts next year and there
will be another Egyptian election cycle before the American president
leaves office if it is to be 2017.
Nevertheless, my projection is the relationship will easily survive
these cycles as long as Obama is interested in resolving regional Middle
East conflicts. If he prefers crisis management rather than conflict
resolution then Egypt will see competition from Syria and Iran on the
one hand, and Saudi Arabia and Turkey on the other as America deals with
all the influential players, not only those who may see eye to eye with
her.
Crisis management or conflict resolution, Egypt has a role to play
although its uniqueness is more self-evident in the latter. The only
real concern is if Obama decides that the Palestinian-Israeli conflict
is moribund and that Netanyahu's economic peace is the more realistic
path. This clearly diminishes the centrality of Egypt for America,
focussing it on securing the Rafah border. Ultimately Obama in 2017 will
leave the Egyptian-American relationship far better than his
predecessor did in 2009.
While he is in office, will the two countries seize the opportunity
that exists to develop the relationship to its fullest potential? That
is the real question.
The Egyptian-American relationship remains strong and will remain
important, however, time has a corrosive effect as history is lost,
memories fade and new generations of politicians arrive on the scene.
The opportunity must be seized during Obama's term to expand the
relationship beyond the Arab-Israeli conflict to regional development
and evolution, north-south issues globally and a higher level of
cooperation bilaterally.
The different regional crises in the Middle East are fuelled by a
conflict between the power of ideologies on the one hand and the power
of the law and international standards on the other. Obama must put the
full scope of his personal talents, the influence of the presidency and
the political and economic weight of the United States as the primary
global power behind the latter, ie the power of the law, not the force
of power.
President Obama was elected essentially as a result of the American
debacle in Iraq. Consequently, it is there that he will be most
determined to fulfil his commitments and withdraw from Iraq -- at any
cost -- before he leaves office if it is to be 2017. Even if Iraq is to
disintegrate he will draw down United States forces significantly,
falling back on Vice-President Biden's position of supporting a loose
tripartite federation between the Shia, Sunni and Kurds in Iraq. The
stability of the Gulf region, with its tremendous oil and gas resources,
will nevertheless remain paramount to America mitigating for an
enhanced presence of US forces in the Arabian Gulf states of Qatar and
Bahrain among others, with security arrangements and facilities in Iraq
itself enabling flyovers, intelligence communication, etc.
Afghanistan is an even more complicated and tedious challenge. Seven
years from now the effects of the additional 30,000 recently announced
US forces will be long gone as will the forces themselves. Stabilising
Afghanistan if successful will be an Afghan affair, supported by
long-term development projects extending well beyond 2017 and Obama's
legacy. Success for America will ultimately be measured in whether
someone is able to kill Osama Bin Laden and Ayman El-Zawahri and show
evidence of that. To do so without also destabilising Pakistan in the
process would be an American dream. Failing in both counts would
constitute an American nightmare and a devastating blow to Obama's
legacy.
American-Iranian relations are multi- dimensional, relating to the
stability of the Arabian Gulf region because of energy, Middle Eastern
politics encompassing Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, the Palestinians, Israel and
even Turkey, and of course the Iranian nuclear programme. This could in
fact become the most contentious bilateral relationship in the region
for America.
The tipping point in determining the nature of this relationship
will be during the president's first rather than second term in office.
Iran and the international community will either have reached a
modus
operandi on Iran's nuclear programme, as part of a package about
future relations with Iran, or be drawn into increasingly aggressive
sanctions against Iran, or even a surgical strike directed at nuclear
facilities and strategic control and command centres. Any of these
diametrically different alternatives will emerge in the first term. The
second term will focus on picking up the pieces or building on the
foundation of a new relationship. Ironically the future here will be
determined by Iranian readiness to engage constructively and not allow
international consensus to develop against it. President Obama has
already expressed a willingness to engage and a propensity to prioritise
diplomacy ahead of the use of force.
President Obama has said all the right things about the Arab-Israeli
conflict, highlighting the comprehensive nature of peace, the
importance of negotiating final status issues between the Israelis and
Palestinians, and the illegitimacy of Israeli settlement activity. But
he has disappointed many in his pursuit of incrementalism, an Israeli
settlement freeze in exchange for Arab normalisation and ultimately
backing down in the face of a Netanyahu rebuff. Slowly he seems to be
weighted down by traditional American politics which constrains
politicians wanting to speak the truth to Israel.
President Obama had given hope to those believing in an Arab-Israeli
peace. To fulfil that hope he must act as a statesman, not a
politician. He should put forward an American presidential statement
establishing clear outlines of a Palestinian-Israeli peace, with two
independent states, two capitals in Jerusalem and a solution for the
refugee problem that compensates the majority or returns most to the
Palestinian state with some returning to Israel. This statement would be
the basis upon which the two parties would negotiate the details.
If Obama chooses not to pursue this option then there will be no
short- term negotiated solution and the United States should support the
Palestinian Authority's desire to have the Security Council formally
endorse their declaration of a state based on the 1967 border with East
Jerusalem as its capital. Such a step would allow the Palestinians to
confirm the recognition they had achieved internationally and wait for a
more flexible Israeli government to negotiate the end of the Israeli
occupation of their territory.
In the absence of either of these options the Obama era will have
promised peace at its outset and buried its prospects at its conclusion.
The Arab and Muslim worlds are still legitimately sceptical about
American foreign policy. It has remained uneven in its application of
norms and standards, if not even been strongly biased against many of
their causes and interests, distorted by parochial American domestic
policies and short-term interest groups. But President Obama's sincere
empathy has already had a soothing effect on much of these communities.
In fact their personal revolution towards George W Bush and his
administration's policies has been replaced by a sense of empathy
towards Barack Obama as an individual. This is true even amongst those
who understandingly believe that the American political system is not
and cannot be equitable or just in global affairs or issues of concern
to the Arabs and Muslim world. As such, in his quest for a better
relationship with the Muslim world, a relationship that serves America,
Obama's legacy after 2017 will be kind to him in spite of the inevitable
disappointments.
All the political conflicts in the traditional Middle East and those
extending into what some call the Greater Middle East will truly test
the determination, intellect and diplomatic skills of the new American
president. If his first 11 months are any indication, there is good
reason for pessimism. Yet it is too early to despair. If Obama remains a
man of audacious ambitions, acute sense of history and astute political
timing then much can be done. His record will not be perfect but the
score card can nevertheless be impressive. If, however, he becomes yet
another politician driven by personal ambition and party politics he
will end up being a great disappointment and our region will have
witnessed yet another missed opportunity. For now, I am not yet a
pessimist but am already much less optimistic than I was on 20 January
2009.
*
Egypt's former ambassador to the United States and current dean
of the School of Public Affairs at the American University in Cairo.
موضوع: Obama's legacy -- seven years from now 
الثلاثاء 4 مايو 2010 - 20:25
